Pedro Gonzalez-Fernandez

Belief Distribution Elicitation Tool

Here you can find our method to elicit parameteric (beta) belief distributions, as described in “Direct Elicitation of Parametric Belief Distributions: An application to inflation expectations”, with Ciril Bosch-Rosa and Thomas Meissner.

 

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Beta Distribution Visualization
−5051015
Inflation (in percent)
The rate of inflation will be... Percentage Chance
...between 12.50% and 15.00%0.00
...between 10.00% and 12.50%0.00
...between 7.50% and 10.00%0.00
...between 6.25% and 7.50%0.00
...between 5.00% and 6.25%15.26
...between 3.75% and 5.00%84.74
...between 2.50% and 3.75%0.00
...between 0.00% and 2.50%0.00
...between -2.50% and 0.00%0.00
...between -5.00% and -2.50%0.00
5.00 %
More certain More uncertain
0.0000

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